Overview
Arbel Yehud (29), alongside soldier Agam Berger (20) and citizen Gadi Moses (80 years old), were released on Thursday along with 5 citizens of Thailand who were taken hostage while working in Israeli towns in the “Gaza envelope” on October 7th : Watchara Sriaoun, 33; Pongsak Thaenna, 36; Sathian Suwannakham, 35; Surasak Rumnao, 32; and Bannawat Saethao, 27. On Saturday morning, the fourth round of hostage releases was carried out—this time without large processions or masses of civilians, but only a number of armed individuals in “Victory” photos. The hostages that were released included American-Israeli Israeli Kieth Siegel (65), Yarden Bibas (35), and Ofer Calderon (54). The number of hostages remaining in Gaza dropped to 79.
As has become the norm, the release of the hostages was very chaotic as the hostages were taken and paraded amongst crowds of Gazans who tried to reach them and were pushed back by Hamas and other terrorists’ factions. Israel informed the mediators that it would not tolerate the hostages being abused in such a blatant propaganda “show” that Hamas puts on when releasing the hostages, torturing them psychologically until the very end. The mediators in turn have said that they would pressure Hamas.
On January 29th, Ahmed Al Sharaa officially became the President of Syria and declared that institutions of government and an economy free of corruption.
Israel has observed Iranian diplomats arriving at Beirut’s Hariri Airport with suitcases loaded with tens of millions of dollars in cash, intended for transfer to the Kerd al-Hassan Association of Hezbollah.
Morgan Ortagus, the United States’ Deputy Special Envoy to the Middle East, is expected to visit Lebanon in the coming days to prevent Hezbollah from returning to Lebanese politics and to ensure cooperation between the Lebanese Army and the American military.
Photo Graphic
Gaza Strip
Hostage Deal
Hamas violated the agreement by not releasing all civilians before beginning to release female soldiers.
Following the violation of the agreement, Israel announced on the previous Saturday that no movement of Gazan civilians northward would be permitted until Israeli citizen Arbel Yehud, who is held by the Islamic Jihad, is released.
Terrorist factions agreed to release six hostages by Saturday evening after violating the deal.
Arbel Yehud (29), alongside soldier Agam Berger (20) and civilian Gadi Moses (80 years old), were released on Thursday along with 5 Thailand nationals who worked in the Israeli towns in the Gaza envelope and taken hostage on October 7th : Watchara Sriaoun, 33; Pongsak Thaenna, 36; Sathian Suwannakham, 35; Surasak Rumnao, 32; and Bannawat Saethao, 27. On Saturday morning, the fourth round of hostage release was carried out—this time without large processions or masses of civilians, but only a number of armed individuals in “Victory” photos. The hostages that were released included American-Israeli Kieth Siegel (65), Yarden Bibas (35), and Ofer Calderon (54). The number of hostages remaining in Gaza dropped to 79.
In return, Israel released 110 Palestinian prisoners, including approximately 30 serving life sentences.
As has become the norm, the release of the hostages was very chaotic, as the hostages were taken and paraded amongst crowds of Gazans who tried to reach them and were pushed back by Hamas and other terrorists’ factions. Israel informed the mediators that it would not tolerate the hostages being abused in such a blatant propaganda “show” that Hamas puts on when releasing the hostages’ torturing them psychologically until the very end. The mediators in turn have said that they would pressure Hamas.
Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz said they had ordered a delay in the releases of the prisoners "until the safe exit of our hostages in the next phases is assured".
Israel withdrew from Al-Rashid and Salah al-Din roads, leading to Gazan movement northward. Salah al-Din Road was opened for vehicle movement, under the supervision of an American security company.
According to a report on i24, Hamas used a Gazan journalist living in Qatar, working for Al Jazeera, to orchestrate the soldier release ‘ceremony’.
Israel received a list of hostages (both living and deceased) expected to be released. In return, Israel provided a list of 400 Gazans who were captured during the war that would be released. Out of a total of 33 hostages to be released 25 are alive, but no specific details provided on the identity of the survivors.
According to a report in The Economist, there is an internal debate within Hamas about its role in the aftermath of the war. The foreign leadership wishes to see a national unity government with Fatah under the Palestinian Authority and the establishment of a “technocratic government” in the Gaza Strip. In contrast, the leadership in the Strip, under Mohammed Sinwar, wants to maintain the status quo where Hamas is the master of the Strip and operates militarily rather than diluting its military activities in favor of primarily political and diplomatic action.
Gadi Mozes amongst Hamas terrorists being delivered to the ICRC| Source: Palestine Online on Telegram, https://t.me/pl24online
Some of the Terrorists Released in the Last Deal
Ismail Radayda – A Palestinian terrorist who was a member of Fatah’s Force 17, serving a life-sentence for the 2001 murder a Greek-Orthodox monk, Tsipoktakis Germanos, and had also planned to carry out an attack at the Hebrew University.
Mohammed Abu Wardah – A Palestinian terrorist responsible for the 1996 Jerusalem “Line 18” suicide bombing which killed 44 people. In addition, he was behind an attack in Ashkelon in February 1996 in which a woman was killed. He was sentenced to a total of 48 life sentences.
Sami Jarradat – One of the terrorists responsible for the 2003 Maxim restaurant attack in Haifa, in which 21 Israelis were killed.
Mohammed Kashua – A Palestinian terrorist, who transported the suicide bomber who blew himself up at a market in Hadera in October 2004. He was sentenced to six life sentences.
Mohammed Amoudi – A Palestinian terrorist, who sent the suicide bomber to carry out an attack at the “Rosh Ha’ir” shawarma stand in Tel Aviv in 2006, in which 11 people were killed.
Zakaria Zubeidi – A Palestinian terrorist, who was arrested in 2019 after being involved in several shooting attacks in the Beit El area. In September 2021, Zubeidi escaped from Gilboa Prison along with five prisoners from Islamic Jihad, but after five days he was recaptured and sentenced to five years in prison. Zubeidi had previously served many years in an Israeli prison for being the commander of Fatah’s Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades in Jenin.
Operational
Between Monday and Wednesday, Hamas claimed that 500,000 displaced people returned to northern Gaza.
The UN estimated this number to be around 376,000.
At least 90% lost their homes, which were destroyed in the war initiated by Hamas.
Hamas attempted to portray this migration as a victory, but social media footage suggests many are actually returning south, where buildings remain intact, and water wells exist.
It is unclear how many have moved back south after discovering their homes have been destroyed.
Social Media Footage indicates that the battalion commander of Beit Hanoun survived.
The Rafah crossing has opened for limited outbound movement. The IDF has withdrawn from the crossing itself and has taken up positions in nearby fortified trenches. The crossing is being monitored by Fatah operatives and Egyptians under a European Union mission. Every day, 50 wounded Gazans, accompanied by three escorts per patient (a total of 200 people), are allowed to exit for medical treatment outside the Strip upon approval by Shin Bet—with no approval for their return. Until February 3rd—with the conclusion of the first stage of the ceasefire—5,600 people are expected to leave the Strip.
IDF Spokesperson (Arabic) instructed Gazans to:
Move on foot only via Al-Rashid Road.
Use vehicles only via Salah al-Din Road, which is under American and Egyptian supervision.
Violations and Military Response:
Several attempts were made to move outside of Al-Rashid Road;
Israeli aircraft struck vehicles attempting to bypass the designated route.
Throughout the strip, the IDF fired warning shots when civilians approached and posed a threat.
Analysis
The movement of civilian back to the north would undo many of Israel’s military achievements. This sets a very dangerous precedent for Israel, as the IDF is losing strategic gains it accrued throughout the war which included hundreds of soldiers sacrificing their life for this partial, hostage deal which left dozens of Israeli hostages in Gaza. This precedent further incentivizes other terrorist factions in the future to kidnap Israelis in order for Israel to cede its strategic assets against militarily weaker foes.
The northward movement of Gazans would allow Hamas militants to blend with the crowd, reestablish military positions in the north which was previously a Hamas stronghold and smuggle in weapons. Hamas reportedly has recruited thousands of new fighters and with the movement of population northwards it increases the pool of potential recruits.
US-Israel Relations
Steve Witkoff, US Special Envoy to the Middle East, told an Israeli journalist that the reconstruction of the Strip will take 10–15 years and that there are no reasonable living conditions in place.
After lifting the embargo on sending heavy bombers and D9 bulldozers to Israel, the Trump administration is considering approving the delivery of 24,000 assault rifles to Israel, after the transfer was previously frozen on the orders of former Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.
The Trump administration approved the transfer of 1,800 bunker-buster bombs (MK-84, each weighing 900 kg).
The approval came after delays from the outgoing Biden administration.
However, under Biden, the U.S. had transferred a total 14,100 of these bombs to Israel during the course of the war.
Trump’s Stance on Gaza Population Resettling
Between Friday night and Sunday, U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that he wants to see Egypt and Jordan accept Palestinian refugees from Gaza, suggesting the transfer of 1.5 million people.
According to Trump, this could be a temporary relocation or a long-term solution to allow Gaza’s reconstruction while new housing units are built for them.
Egypt and Jordan outright rejected the proposal. They do not want to be viewed as collaborators with Israel in displacing the Palestinians from their “homeland” which is a rallying cause in the pan-Arabic world. These regimes could potentially be destabilized if there is enough public discontent with the government. Moreover, historically, Palestinians have destabilized Arab host countries such as Jordan that almost resulted in a successful coup by the PLO in 1970, or when the PLO was active in Lebanon during its bloody civil war.
At this stage, it is unclear whether Trump’s statement will be backed by actions.
Questions remain as to whether Trump would impose sanctions on Egypt and Jordan or suspend security and economic aid (such as Egypt’s reliance on International Monetary Fund assistance) to pressure them into opening their borders to Gazan refugees.
Trump is signaling a willingness to break international norms in addressing the Palestinian issue, aiming to prevent the perpetuation of a permanent Palestinian refugee crisis.
It is possible that Trump is using this statement as leverage to push Egypt and Jordan into taking a more active role in Gaza’s reconstruction rather than accepting 1.5 million refugees.
Israel should push the Trump administration to turn these statements into an actionable plan, to end the cycle of conflicts with Gaza and prevent the Palestinian issue from remaining unresolved.
Trump signed an executive order allowing the deportation of foreign students from the U.S. if they expressed pro-Hamas views or had attacked Jews.
Netanyahu's Visit to the U.S.
On Tuesday, February 4, Prime Minister Netanyahu will visit the U.S. to meet President Trump.
Trump's official invitation stated it would be an honor to host Netanyahu as the first foreign leader to visit the U.S. during his new term. Ahead of his departure, Netanyahu expressed optimism about the potential outcomes of the meeting, highlighting the significant impact of their decisions during the Gaza war with hopes of expanding the Abraham Accords to Saudi Arabia. This meeting could greatly impact the results of the war and is one of the most important diplomatic visits Israel has carried out since the beginning of the war.
Trump’s Special Envoy, Steve Witkoff:
Visited Saudi Arabia on ,January 28, to advance normalization with Israel.
Arrived in Israel on January 29, visited Gaza, and held a 2.5-hour meeting with Netanyahu. He later toured Hamas tunnels under the Philadelphi Corridor. It is the first time in over 15 years that an American official has visited Gaza.
Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar and Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer met with Witkoff to discuss the migration plan.
Judea and Samaria
Operation "Iron Wall" expanded to Tulkarm and Nur Shams Camp.
Residents were ordered to evacuate some areas for at least a week.
The operation began with an airstrike, killing the local Hamas commander.
Eight terrorists have so far, been eliminated in Tulkarm.
Operation statistics as of Wednesday:
18 terrorists eliminated in Jenin.
60 wanted suspects arrested.
150 explosive devices destroyed.
Kfir Brigade soldiers led the attack in the Jenin camp, eliminating terrorists and destroying an explosives lab, which was also used as an operations command center.
The Haruv Reconnaissance Unit raided a weapons factory, which had firing slits and infantry passageways between walls.
By Saturday night, Israel is expected to release 200 terrorists, most of whom will return to Judea and Samaria.
Despite Defense Minister Israel Katz's warning, mass celebrations erupted in East Jerusalem and surrounding villages with the return of freed Palestinian terrorists.
Security forces are on high alert for possible escalations. Some of these prisoners are high-profile terrorists who became symbols in the Palestinian ethos, and are responsible for murdering hundreds.
In the past week, Border Police arrested 541 illegal infiltrators.
Additionally, 56 suspects were arrested for assisting their entry, transportation, or employment.
Illegal infiltrators pose a security threat as can be demonstrated from the attack of just two weeks ago when on January 21, a 19-year-old illegal infiltrator from Tulkarm carried out a stabbing attack in Tel Aviv, severely injuring a 28-year-old. He was neutralized by armed civilians present at the scene.
Diplomatic
A Palestinian source told the Arabic network “Sky News” that the Middle East envoy of U.S. President Donald Trump, Steve Witkoff, has approved a Palestinian delegation that is expected to arrive for negotiations in Cairo. According to the source, “the American administration is interested in returning the Palestinian Authority to manage the Gaza Strip.” The Palestinian delegation will depart for Egypt to meet with Egypt’s Foreign Minister, Dar Abd al-Aty, and Witkoff, to finalize discussions regarding control of the Gaza Strip.
Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh met with Syria’s de facto leader, Ahmad al-Shar'a (Abu Mohammad al-Joulani) — the first visit by a senior Palestinian delegation to Syria since the fall of the Assad regime. It was reported that Shtayyeh emphasized “Palestine’s” support for Syria and the unity of its lands. He noted that the visit expresses “Palestine’s” supportive stance toward Syria and aims to strengthen cooperation and coordination in political and economic matters to achieve further progress and prosperity.
Lebanon
Diplomatic
French President Macron called on Israel to withdraw completely from Lebanon.
At the same time, Macron approved the participation of Israeli weapons companies in the upcoming exhibition in France.
The Trump administration approved a 24-day extension of Israeli troop presence in the area until February 18.
Hezbollah Deputy Secretary-General Naim Qassem condemned the extension.
He stated that Hezbollah has the right to attack but did not specify whether it would do so, indicating its weakened capabilities.
Israel has observed Iranian diplomats arriving at Beirut’s Hariri Airport with suitcases loaded with tens of millions of dollars in cash, intended for transfer to the Kerd al-Hassan Association of Hezbollah (essentially the bank of the Shia terror organization). This money is then used to pay operatives or the families of eliminated militants. It is alleged that Turkish territory is being used—turning a blind eye or even cooperating—to facilitate these Iranian cash transfers into Lebanon.
Morgan Ortagus, the US Deputy Special Envoy to the Middle East, is expected to visit Lebanon in the coming days to prevent Hezbollah from returning to Lebanese politics and to ensure cooperation between the Lebanese Army and the American military. Currently, American and Saudi forces are aiming to replace Iran’s influence in the country, striving to extricate Lebanon from Iran’s influence under its axis of resistance.
Operational
Despite warnings from the IDF (and initially, from the Lebanese army) for Lebanese civilians not to return to villages in southern Lebanon
massive numbers of Shiites attempted to return home on Sunday, with the ceasefire deadline expiring. They raised Hezbollah flags and pictures of Nasrallah. According to Lebanese media, they entered or attempted to enter 35 villages in the south.
The Lebanese army quickly assisted them, while the Lebanese president and the Speaker of Parliament praised them for their "resistance" against Israeli occupation.
The IDF responded with fire, with footage online even showing Merkava tanks chasing vehicles and firing at them.
Throughout the day: 24 lawbreakers were eliminated, including a Lebanese soldier. 124 were injured.
The Lebanese Army seized Hezbollah’s underground missile compound southeast of Tyre, called "Imad-4".
Israeli military activity
Late Thursday night and into Friday morning, the Air Force attacked several targets in the Lebanese valley, including a military site with underground infrastructure for the development and production of armaments, as well as a border crossing facility with Syria that Hezbollah uses to smuggle weapons. These strikes were in response to Hezbollah’s launch of a reconnaissance drone toward the Israeli border near the settlement of Zerat, which was subsequently shot down.
The IDF continues searching for weapons and destroying terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon. It is operating in 12 villages, mainly in the eastern sector.
Tuesday night: Airstrikes in Nabatieh targeted a weapons transfer attempt, resulting in at least 20 casualties.
Wednesday morning: An airstrike targeted an engineering vehicle violating IDF orders.
Syria
Military Activity
Israel is establishing new outposts in the Hermon sector as it is preparing for a long-term presence.
The exact number of outposts has not been disclosed.
IDF engineering forces are clearing roads.
The outposts are adapted to extreme cold, featuring:
Extra insulation layers.
Clinics adapted to treat frostbite.
Defense Minister Israel Katz visited the area and declared: "We will remain in the Hermon and the security zone indefinitely to ensure security."
He emphasized maintaining ties with friendly populations, particularly the large Druze community in the vicinity.
For the first time since the IDF entered the area on December 8th, there was an exchange of fire in the northern part of the buffer zone. Militants from an organization calling itself the “Islamic Resistance Front” opened fire on an IDF force, which returned fire; no casualties were reported.
There are daily clashes in the entire northern part of Rojava between the SDF and the Turkish-backed SNA, accompanied by numerous Turkish bombardments. The SDF is arresting unregistered individuals and appears to be at a breaking point.
Diplomacy
On January 29th, officially, Ahmed Al Sharaa became the President of Syria and declared that institutions of government and an economy free of corruption would be built with representation for all communities, though the state would not be federal (he did not invite the SDF to his swearing-in ceremony).
Syria demanded Israel withdraw from the buffer zone and called on UNDOF (UN peacekeepers) to confront Israel.
A Russian delegation arrived in Damascus and met with Al Sharaa to maintain inter-state relations (this required sidelining Assad), as the Russians are in the process of evacuating military equipment from the country. The new Syrian government is offering for the Russians to keep their military assets if they extradite Assad.
Turkey
On January 29, 2025, a Hamas delegation met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Ankara. The delegation was led by Muhammad Darwish, head of Hamas's Shura Council, and included other senior Hamas officials. On the Turkish side, the meeting was attended by Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and National Intelligence Organization Chief İbrahim Kalın.
Iran
Iran’s Foreign Minister issued a direct nuclear threat in an interview with Sky News (Jan 28):
If Germany, Britain, and France (E3) activate the SnapBack mechanism, leading to full sanctions, then Iran will accelerate its nuclear weapons program.
This is the most significant nuclear threat made by an Iranian official to date.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Arakchi told Sky News in an interview that “if Iran’s nuclear facilities are attacked, we will respond immediately and decisively.” He added, “We aspire to reach an agreement with the West that can lead to the lifting of sanctions and an improvement in Iran’s economic situation.”
He said, “We have not exchanged any messages with U.S. President Donald Trump. We are arranging negotiations with European countries and awaiting the response from the other parties.” Arakchi added that “we have not yet made a decision regarding the upcoming negotiations. Our previous experience with the nuclear deal led to a lack of trust on the other side.”
In an Al Jazeera interview he said that “a military attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities would be the greatest mistake the U.S. could make.” He stated, “Tehran will respond immediately and decisively if its nuclear sites are attacked, which will lead to a full-scale war in the region.”
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards unveiled a new drone:
Named "Gaza", with a flight range of 4,000 km.
Capable of carrying a 500 kg warhead.
Iraq
“Amwaj Media,” a British site covering developments in Iran and Iraq, reported—citing “well-informed sources” in Baghdad and Beirut—that an Iraqi proposal for a prisoner exchange, which has been raised, might include the release of seven Hezbollah militants detained by Israel – among them the naval captain Imaad Amhaz – in exchange for the release of the Israeli Elizabeth Tsurkov, who has been held hostage in Iraq for nearly two years.
International
France’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to U.S. President Donald Trump’s initiative to transfer the residents of the Gaza Strip to other countries, stating that it “is unacceptable and contradicts the two-state solution.” According to the ministry, the proposal “constitutes a grave violation of international law.”
Kaya Kalas, the European Union’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, announced that “the Union has resumed its civilian mission to monitor the Rafah border crossing between the Gaza Strip and Egypt.” She stated, “the EU’s civilian border mission is being deployed today at the border at the request of both the Palestinians and the Israelis. The mission will assist Palestinian border personnel and allow for the transfer of people out of Gaza, including those in need of medical treatment.”
Representatives from nine developing countries in Latin America and Africa have established the “The Hague Group,” whose goal is to reaffirm the decisions of the International Criminal Court (ICC), after they claimed its rulings “have recently been put to the test” and aim to target Israel. South Africa’s Deputy Minister for International Relations, Elouin Boths, said at a press conference held in The Hague that the court was under attack because “it dared to hold Israel accountable.”
The U.S. Senate blocked legislation imposing sanctions on the International Criminal Court in The Hague, which had already been approved by the House of Representatives, and received support from 54 of 100 members.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed doubts about the ability to fully implement the ceasefire agreement and stressed that the central problem remains Hamas. Rubio also referred to the previous administration and mentioned internal tensions between the State Department and the National Security Council regarding support for Israel after October 7, which he said reflected the split within the Democratic Party.
Global Jihad
A senior figure from an Al-Qaeda branch was eliminated in an American airstrike in northwestern Syria. The U.S. military reported that it had killed the senior terror organizer, Khuras al-Din, as part of “the ongoing efforts and commitment” of the Americans to hit armed groups in the region and their ability “to plan, organize, and execute attacks against civilians and the U.S. military, our allies, and our partners in the region.”
Fallen Soldiers
Photo Soldier
First Sergeant Liam Hazi z"l
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