Account of the main events in the Israel-Hamas war and hostilities by the Iranian Axis. This is a product by IDSF-Habithonistim’s Research Department |
Overview
Israeli Ground Offensive and LossesIsrael’s ground offensive against Hezbollah resulted in the killing of around 300 fighters, including senior commanders. However, Israeli forces also suffered casualties, with 9 soldiers killed and over 20 injured during ambushes.Two Israeli soldiers were also killed and 24 others were injured in a drone attack launched from Iraq, targeting a military base in the Golan Heights.
Hezbollah Leadership and RetaliationFollowing the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and his successor Hashem Safi al-Din, Israel continued strikes targeting senior Hezbollah members, including key figures in their missile and communication programs, while Hezbollah launched counterattacks on Israeli forces.
Iran’s Missile Strikes on IsraelIn response to Israel’s targeted killings of senior terrorists, Iranian protégés, Iran launched missile strikes on Israeli cities and military targets. Iranian leaders warned that further Israeli aggression would provoke harsher responses, particularly targeting Israel’s energy facilities. Iran is now bracing for an Israeli counter-strike, shutting down its airspace several times.
Iran’s Involvement and RhetoricIran’s leadership, including President Masoud Pajzakian and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, condemned Israel’s actions against Iran’s own network of terrorism and reaffirmed support for their so-called regional “resistance” movements. Iran vowed retaliation for the assassinations of key figures like Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, emphasizing that its commitment to annihilate Israel would continue.
International Response and EscalationGlobal powers expressed concern over the escalating tensions in the Middle East, without outrightly calling out Iran’s continued destabilization efforts. The U.S. supported Israel’s right to self-defense with Biden confirming that sanctions on Iran were under review following the attacks. On the other hand European leaders called for ceasefires. In contrast, Iran’s allies continued to offer support, and Hezbollah’s retaliatory actions added to the instability in the region.
Yemen
In response to recent Houthi attacks on Israel, the Israeli Air Force launched airstrikes targeting Houthi-controlled military sites in Yemen, particularly in Ras Issa and Al-Hudaydah
Palestinian Resistance
There is growing support for armed struggle as a means of achieving Palestinian goals, with 51.2% of respondents in favor compared to 40.8% in a survey conducted in May 2024.
Lebanon - Hezbollah
As of late September 2024, the IDF launched a ground offensive into southern Lebanon, with thousands of troops crossing the border. The operation involved elite infantry units, armored brigades, and special forces, aiming to dismantle Hezbollah's extensive tunnel networks and neutralize its capabilities to invade into Israel in a similar fashion to what Hamas did on October 7th 203. The IDF uncovered a series of complex underground tunnels, some stretching several kilometers right on the Israeli border, used for. Initial objectives focused on securing strategic locations along the border and targeting key Hezbollah strongholds in order to disrupt their operational capabilities and reduce the threat to northern Israel.
The IDF has intensified operations in southern Lebanon. On October 3, the IDF issued evacuation orders for 25 villages in southern Lebanon, directing residents north of the Awali River near Sidon. Later, further evacuation alerts targeted buildings in Dahieh, a Hezbollah stronghold, with reports of widespread destruction and significant displacement in the area.
Hezbollah retaliated, launching rocket attacks on Israeli military installations on October 1 in response to the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, their leader. Nasrallah's successor, Hashem Safi al-Din was also assassinated by Israel on october 2. Israeli strikes continued, killing senior Hezbollah figures, including Mohammad Youssef Anisi, a key player in Hezbollah’s missile program, and Mohammad Rashid Sakafi, the group’s communications chief.
In parallel, Israel’s ground offensive has escalated. The IDF confirmed killing around 250 Hezbollah fighters in four days, including senior commanders. On October 5, The IDF eliminated Mohammad Hussein Ali Al-Mahmoud and Saeed Alaa Naif Ali, both Hamas operatives in Lebanon. Israeli forces suffered losses, with eight elite IDF soldiers from the Egoz Commando Unit killed in southern Lebanon during intense fighting with Hezbollah forces. The soldiers fell in a series of clashes, primarily in a southern Lebanese village, where they encountered well-prepared Hezbollah fighters using advanced anti-tank weapons and fortified positions. Through air support the forces neutralized over 30 militants in retaliation. UNIFIL, which was established to prevent the militarization of southern Lebanon, and has clearly failed in its mandate, managed to put out a statement urging “both sides” to de-escalate.
An estimate of 1.2 million Lebanese civilians already fled southern Lebanon, moving toward northern Lebanon or Syria as Israel's ground offensive intensifies. Many civilians, aware of Hezbollah's strongholds and weapon caches, are avoiding these areas, enabling Israel to target Hezbollah more effectively with minimal collateral damage. This situation contrasts sharply with Gaza, where Egypt refused to open its borders, leading to unnecessary civilian casualties and aiding Hamas’s strategy of using human shields. Lebanese civilians, having observed the Gaza conflict, are apparently unwilling to be used in the same way by Hezbollah.
Lebanon's Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, warned that Lebanon is facing one of the most dangerous periods in its history, with around a million displaced due to the ongoing war with Israel. He noted that the government, alongside the UN, is working to meet the basic needs of these displaced citizens, expressing appreciation for international support.
Iran
In a series of statements, the Iranian leadership increased its rhetoric which targets Israel and supports regional "resistance" movements. On September 29, Iranian President Masoud Pajzakian condemned Israel's actions, stating they were unacceptable and would not go unanswered. He emphasized that freedom movements are not defeated by assassinations, criticizing the U.S. and Europe for suggesting a ceasefire in Gaza could be reached if Iran refrained from responding to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31, 2024.
On September 30, senior Iranian officials, including Pajzakian, political advisor Ali Shamkhani, Vice President Jawad Zarif, and Quds Force Commander Esmail Qaani, visited Hezbollah’s Tehran headquarters to offer condolences after the death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Nasser Kanaani declared Nasrallah a martyr and predicted that the "resistance front" and Lebanon would one day commemorate the "end of Zionism." Kanaani also warned that the war in Gaza would further destabilize the region, asserting that Iran would defend its national security and interests.
On October 1, Ali Akhmedian, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, stressed the need for a "precise" response against Israel, arguing that the Israeli "enemy" is desperate and that assassinations would not lead to success. Victory, he claimed, belongs to the resistance.
On October 2, Reuters reported that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had warned Hezbollah leader Nasrallah to flee Lebanon before his assassination, expressing concerns over potential Israeli infiltration in Iran.
These extremely inflammatory statements by the seniormost levels of Iranian leadership have not been subject to significant international condemnation.
The Iranian Attack
Following the assassinations of Ismail Haniyeh, Hassan Nasrallah, and Abbas Nilforoushan, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards launched 181 ballistic missiles on Israeli cities and military bases, acting on orders from the Supreme Leader. Iranian officials warned that any Israeli retaliation would lead to stronger responses. Israel claimed that most of the ballistic missiles were intercepted, however somedid hit their targets. The Iranian media touted a significant achievement and that their missiles hit three air force bases in southern and central Israel, the Mossad headquarters, and the intelligence headquarters near Herzliya. There is no evidence to support this claim. According to Defense Minister Yoav Galant, all of the bases remain fully operational, though it was reported that some bases suffered minor strikes.
Israel's rhetorical response to the Iranian missile attack was resolute, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasizing Israel's right and duty to defend itself. Netanyahu warned that Iran would face severe consequences for the aggression, reaffirming that Israel would not tolerate attacks on its sovereignty. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant echoed these sentiments, downplaying the damage caused by the missiles and asserting that the Israeli military remained fully capable of countering further threats from Iran and its proxies
Internationally, world leaders expressed concern over the escalating tensions. The United States condemned the Iranian missile strike, affirming its support for Israel’s right to defend itself, while European leaders called for de-escalation, urging diplomatic efforts to prevent the conflict from spreading further. Regional actors like Saudi Arabia also voiced apprehension, fearing the potential for a broader regional war, while Iran’s allies in the region, such as Hezbollah, vowed continued resistance
General Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Staff of Iran’s Armed Forces, stated that while Iran had the capability to hit economic targets, they focused on military bases, radars, and tank gathering areas to establish deterrence. Commander Abdolrahim Mousavi warned that further Israeli actions would provoke harsher retaliation, hoping Israel understood the message.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, meeting with Lebanese officials, reaffirmed Iran’s support for Hezbollah and insisted that the missile strikes were a proportional response to violations of Iranian sovereignty. He emphasized that Iran would only continue to escalate if Israel did so.
Ali Fadavi, deputy commander of the Revolutionary Guards, threatened to target Israeli energy facilities in response to any Israeli aggression, while Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei condemned U.S. goals in the region, declaring that defending Lebanon is a duty for all Muslims. Khamenei stressed that resistance would not falter despite leadership losses and framed the missile strike as the "minimum punishment" for Israel’s actions.
During a visit to Damascus, Araghchi emphasized regional coordination with Syria, particularly around efforts to broker a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon, while criticizing Israel's ‘continued crimes’ and asserting that Iran's efforts to end the war were ongoing.
Israel - Domestic, Military/Political
In early October, several significant events highlighted the escalating security situation in Israel. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant announced the IDF's ground operations in southern Lebanon, emphasizing that Israel and the U.S. had agreed on the need to dismantle Hezbollah's offensive infrastructure. Gallant noted, "I spoke with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin about developments in the northern arena and the steps required to ensure the safe return of northern residents." He also briefed Austin on the IDF's operations in southern Lebanon.
On October 1st, a terror attack in Tel Aviv and Jaffa saw two gunmen open fire on passengers aboard the light rail and later on Jerusalem Boulevard in Jaffa, killing seven and wounding 15. The attackers, Mohammed Khalaf Saher Rajab and Hassan Mohammed Hassan Tamimi, Palestinians from Hebron, were killed at the scene. Investigations revealed the terrorists had illegally crossed from PA controlled Hebron to carry out the attack.
On October 3rd, Hamas-affiliated media praised the attackers as "Al-Qassam heroes," using the hashtag #StrikeYourEnemy. These channels also linked the Jaffa attack to the October 7th events, warning, "There is no escape from our fire."
On October 2nd, Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi visited Tel Nof Airbase after an Iranian missile strike and stated, "We have the capability to strike anywhere in the Middle East. Any enemy who doesn’t realize this will soon learn." He also pledged to do everything possible to bring hostages home.
The same day, Foreign Minister Israel Katz declared UN Secretary-General António Guterres persona non grata, banning him from Israel. Katz criticized Guterres, saying, "Anyone who cannot condemn Iran’s attack on Israel has no right to set foot in Israel." He called Guterres' actions a stain on the UN’s history.
Gaza - Hamas
Israel conducted key military and diplomatic operations targeting Hamas militants and rescuing hostages in Gaza.
On October 1st, Israeli forces attacked a Hamas command center in the UNRWA Shuja'iyya School in Gaza City, used for military operations and terrorist planning. Another Hamas facility in a former school in northern Gaza was also targeted for launching attacks against Israel.
On October 4th, after a decade in captivity, Fawzia Amin Sido, a 21-year-old Yazidi woman who was captured and trafficked by ISIS, and later transferred to a Hamas member in Gaza, was rescued by the IDF. Her captor was killed during "Operation Iron Swords," enabling her to escape. Coordinated efforts by Israel, the U.S., and international partners led to her secret evacuation from Gaza and to a reunion with her family in Iraq. This rescue highlighted the links between Hamas and ISIS, revealing further atrocities committed in Gaza.
On September 30th, Israeli forces eliminated Fathi Sharif, head of Hamas's Lebanon operations, responsible for coordination with Hezbollah and building up Hamas’s military strength in Lebanon.
On October 5th, marking one year since the October 7 massacre, Hamas and other terrorist groups in Gaza called for national reconciliation with Fatah while rejecting any prisoner exchange unless their conditions were met.
These actions demonstrate ongoing tensions and Israel’s efforts to dismantle terrorist networks in Gaza and beyond.
Judea and Samaria
A recent public opinion survey conducted by the Al-Quds Center for Communication and Information revealed shifting views in Palestinian Authority controlled areas of Judea and Samaria and Palestinian dominated neighborhoods of Jerusalem regarding key political and military events. According to the survey, 45% of respondents believe that Hamas’ attack on October 7, 2023 served the Palestinian national interest. This reflects an increase from the 39.6% recorded in a previous poll. Conversely, 24.5% felt that the attack harmed Palestinian interests, down from 30.2% in the last survey.
The survey also highlighted a growing support for armed struggle as a means of achieving Palestinian goals, with 51.2% of respondents in favor, compared to 40.8% in a survey conducted in May 2024. Support for diplomatic negotiations, however, dropped from 44.5% to 35.7%. When asked about the ongoing war in Gaza, 45.7% of respondents believe Hamas will emerge victorious, a significant decrease from the 67.1% who held that belief in October 2023. Additionally, 32.6% of respondents think the war will end without a clear winner.
Meanwhile, Israeli military operations have intensified. On October 3, an Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) strike in Tulkarm resulted in the killing of Ghaith Radwan, the commander of the Tulkarm refugee camp battalion of Islamic Jihad. On October 5, the IDF and Shin Bet confirmed the elimination of at least 12 key operatives from Hamas and Islamic Jihad in another strike on Tulkarm.
As the one-year anniversary of the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack approaches, pro-Hamas channels have called on Palestinians throughout Judea and SamariaJudea & Samaria to participate in mass marches to commemorate the event, which they refer to as the "Al-Aqsa Flood." These marches, to take place on October 4, 2024, are described as a national obligation and will start from mosques across the “Judea & Samaria and occupied Jerusalem”. Additionally, these channels are encouraging Palestinians to carry out terrorist attacks, branding October as a "heroic month of sacrifices and victories." They refer to October as a time that has "etched its name and deeds in the annals of historical heroism."
Pro-Hamas platforms are also offering "tips" on how terrorist cells in Judea and Samaria should operate. These tips emphasize the use of distraction tactics and simultaneous attacks to scatter Israeli forces, weakening their ability to respond effectively to larger assaults. Posts shared on these channels, accompanied by the hashtag #Element_of_Surprise, suggests that small-scale or planned attacks in multiple locations could force Israeli forces to spread thin, making them more vulnerable to larger operations.
International
In early October, global leaders and institutions expressed growing concern over escalating tensions in the Middle East, making strong statements and taking action to address the crisis.
Italy, as the temporary president of the G7, reaffirmed its commitment to reducing hostilities. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, in a call with Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati, stressed the importance of diplomatic efforts and a ceasefire in the region.
The UK voiced support for Israel. British Ambassador to the UN, Barbara Woodward, emphasized Israel's right to self-defense and urged Iran and its proxies to show restraint, highlighting the risk of further destabilization in Lebanon. The UK Ministry of Defence revealed that Royal Air Force jets had assisted in defendingIsrael from the Iranian attack on October 3rd, demonstrating Britain's commitment to preventing escalation.
Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz condemned Iran’s missile attacks on Israel, warning of regional ignition, and called for Hezbollah and Iran to cease their assaults. Germany remained committed to mediating a ceasefire.
In contrast, French President Emmanuel Macron advocated for an arms embargo on Israel regarding weapons used in Gaza, stressing the need for political solutions rather than military support.
Simultaneously, large protests erupted globally. Around 40,000 pro-Palestinian demonstrators marched in London, with similar gatherings in Paris, Rome, Manila,Toronto and Cape Town. In Berlin, scuffles broke out between pro-Israel supporters and pro-Palestinian counter-protesters, while in Rome, 6,000 protestors waved Palestinian and Lebanese flags in defiance of a ban ahead of the October 7 anniversary of the Israel-Hezbollah war.
Lithuania’s parliament on Friday passed a resolution designating Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization.
“We were the first among EU parliaments to declare this. We recognize the IRGC as a terrorist organization,” Emanuelis Zingeris, the chairman of the Committee on Foreign Affairs, told a press conference on Friday.
United States
U.S. Ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, issued a clear warning to Hamas, emphasizing that Hezbollah and Iran would not be their saviors. Instead, she stressed that only a ceasefire agreement could offer a solution to the mounting violence. Her statement reflected increasing international pressure on Hamas amid the intensifying war.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Joe Biden weighed in on Israel’s potential response to the Iranian missile attacks. During a White House briefing, Biden remarked that Israel had not yet decided its course of action but advised Israeli officials to consider alternatives to attacking Iran’s oil facilities. His focus was on preventing a full-scale war and working with allies to defuse the situation. Biden also confirmed that sanctions on Iran were under review following the attacks.
Despite diplomatic efforts, uncertainty remained over Israel’s next move. A senior U.S. State Department official revealed that Israel had not ruled out a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities in response to the missile attacks. While there were “hopes for restraint and wisdom”, the official noted there were no guarantees.
With regards to Lebanon, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced $157 million in aid to support displaced populations in Lebanon and Syria. The funding aimed to provide essential supplies like food, shelter, and water infrastructure to those affected by the violence. This added to the $386 million in aid the U.S. had already supplied to the region over the past year.
Amid the broader diplomatic and humanitarian efforts, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris met with Arab-American leaders in Michigan. During the meeting, community leaders called on her to distance herself from the Biden administration’s pro-Israel stance and to push for an end to the war in Gaza. While Harris expressed her desire to see the war end, she did not make any specific commitments but pledged to do what she could to contribute to the peace efforts.
The US is advocating for the calling of elections in Lebanon, with the goal of trying to take advantage of the apparent current weakness of Hezbollah to elect a new government that would be independent of Hezbollah. This strategy appears remarkably similar to the US plan to hold elections in Gaza in 2006 which led to the electoral success of Hamas - not the outcome that the US has hoped for.
Turkey
In a recent statement, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan addressed the escalating war between Israel and Hezbollah, expressing strong support for Lebanon. Erdoğan declared, "We will stand by our Lebanese brothers. We will support them by all possible means."
In a related development, Turkey's Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a sharp rebuke of Israel in response to the launch of the Israel Defense Forces' (IDF) ground operations in southern Lebanon. The Turkish government characterized the actions as "an illegal occupation attempt that violates Lebanese sovereignty." Furthermore, Turkish officials emphasized the need for the operation to cease immediately, warning that the ongoing war could trigger a new wave of refugees in the region.
Jordan
The Jordanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned the Israeli airstrike in Tulkarm, located in the western Samaria, which, according to Palestinian reports, resulted in the deaths of 18 individuals. In its statement, the Ministry emphasized that this attack, along with the ongoing escalation against Palestinians in the Judea & Samaria, as well as continued aggression in Gaza and Lebanon, reflects Israel's determination to widen the regional war and threaten the security and stability of the area. Furthermore, the Ministry noted that this escalation demonstrates the intransigence of the Israeli government and its disruption of international diplomatic efforts aimed at resolving the war.
Qatar
In early October, Iranian President Mahmoud Pezeshkian met with a high-level Hamas delegation in Doha, Qatar. The delegation was led by Mohammed Darwish, the head of Hamas' Shura Council, and included notable figures such as senior Hamas leader Khaled Mashal, Yahya Sinwar's deputy, Khalil al-Hayya, and senior officials Hussam Badran and Mohammed Nazzal.
The Iranian side was also represented by their Minister of Foreign Affairs, underscoring the importance Tehran places on its relationship with Hamas. This meeting reflects the ongoing coordination between Iran and Hamas, particularly at a time when regional dynamics are evolving rapidly.
Yemen - Houthis Iranian Proxy
In response to recent Houthi attacks on Israel, the Israeli Air Force launched airstrikes targeting Houthi-controlled military sites in Yemen, particularly in Ras Issa and Al-Hudaydah. These strikes focused on power stations and a seaport used for importing oil and transferring Iranian-supplied weapons. Additional attacks targeted fuel terminals at Al-Hudaydah port, oil and gas storage facilities in Ras Issa, and power stations, with severe damage reported to two of the stations. Some viewed it as an Israeli signal to Iran and Israel’s capability of striking its oil fields.
The Houthis accused Israel, with alleged American support, of conducting 17 air raids on civilian facilities, including a port and a power station in Al-Hudaydah. Houthi spokesperson Yahya Sarea reported five civilian deaths and 57 injuries, vowing retaliatory military action. The Houthis also claimed responsibility for drone attacks against Israel, one targeting Tel Aviv and four aimed at Eilat.
In early October, Arab media reported U.S.-British airstrikes on Houthi positions in Sana'a and Al-Hudaydah, signaling broader international involvement in the Yemen war.
Syria & Iraq - Iranian Proxies
Tensions are rising in the Middle East as Iraqi militias, Israeli forces, and regional powers brace for potential escalation. A source close to Iraqi militias warned that if Israel invades Lebanon, the militias are prepared to strike, armed with missiles and UAVs. This source indicated that a ground invasion was anticipated, and strategic decisions have been made accordingly, with the militias stationed near the Lebanese border, ready to intervene.
In Damascus, an Israeli air and UAV strike killed three civilians, including Safa’a Ahmad, a TV presenter close to President Assad. Waring reports suggest she was either killed by shrapnel from a nearby targeted vehicle or in a direct attack on her residence. Syrian air defenses attempted to respond but were also targeted.
Meanwhile, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani urged Shiite factions to restrain pro-Iran militias, following reports that Israel had identified 35 targets in Iraq. In Baghdad, rockets were fired at the U.S. Victory base, though no casualties were reported, with U.S. air defenses intercepting the attack. The Pentagon stressed that the U.S. would respond to any attacks on its forces, despite not seeking war.
In response to potential Israeli or American strikes, Iraqi militias evacuated command posts in Baghdad and other cities as a precaution. These actions reflect the fragile state of the region, where all sides are preparing for possible escalation, signaling a broader confrontation.
In recent days, the IDF has intensified its operations in Syria, targeting military facilities and infrastructure used by Iranian-backed militias. One of the key strikes involved the Aleppo International Airport, which has been a significant hub for Iranian weapons transfers and is also known to be influenced by Russian Wagner forces. These strikes are part of Israel's broader efforts to prevent arms from reaching Hezbollah and other hostile groups during the ongoing conflict. The attack on Aleppo’s airport, in particular, damaged runways and other facilities, aiming to disrupt logistical and military support operations for these groups.
On October 4, 2024, two Israeli soldiers were killed and 24 others were injured in a drone attack launched from Iraq, targeting a military base in the Golan Heights. The fallen soldiers were identified as Sgt. Daniel Aviv Haim Sofer and Cpl. Tal Dror, both 19 and members of the Golani Brigade. According to the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), two explosive-laden drones were involved in the attack. While one was intercepted by air defenses, the second managed to strike the base, causing significant casualties. This attack, claimed by a pro-Iranian militia in Iraq, marks a notable escalation in drone warfare in the region as tensions between Israel and Iranian-backed militias in the region continue to rise.
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