Analysis: wider war in the region would also most certainly carry major risks for Moscow in an entanglement of its ally Syria, a weakening of Iran’s capacity to supply Russia with weapons and complicating its relations with Gulf Arab states and Iran
Russia is avoiding direct military engagement in the Middle East
Russia has been walking a fine line between undermining U.S. strength in the Middle East and sidestepping commitment in the region – in a bid to avoid wider conflagration in the region. Moscow has shown little interest in U.S. diplomacy to achieve calm and stability, but it also does not want a regional conflagration
Such an escalation may well also complicate Russia’s relationships with Iran and the Gulf Arab states. It is much easier for Russia to maintain Gulf state relationships when the region is harmonious and conflict-free, rather than engaging in a perilous zero-sum game. Ultimately, Russia is more likely to support Iran or Hezbollah through electronic warfare or by funneling weapons to its partners that are not needed for the Ukraine campaign than actually engaging militarily in the Middle East directly, therefore.
Mounting Iran-Israel tensions could divert attention from Ukraine-Russia war
Mounting tensions between Iran and Israel could have advantages for Moscow, however. For one, such further escalation would almost certainly further divert Washington’s attention and supplies from Ukraine, where Russia is currently on the offensive.
Wider war in the Middle East would complicate Russia’s Gulf relations
Nonetheless, a wider war in the region would also most certainly carry major risks for Moscow. If Israel began to fight Hezbollah or Iran, the Kremlin would have to contend with three dangerous outcomes: the entanglement of its ally Syria, a weakening of Iran’s capacity to supply Russia with weapons, and a complication of its relations with the Gulf Arab states and Iran. Depending on what Israel—or the United States, should it opt to join in—decided to attack in an escalated situation, Iran’s defense industry could also come under serious strain.
Iran-Russia military cooperation hampered by Ukraine
Indeed, since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Moscow and Tehran have considerably expanded their military-technical cooperation, with Russia receiving various types of Iranian combat drones, artillery shells, small arms ammunition and glide bombs. For the moment however, the size of these deliveries from Iran is limited by the conflict situation in Ukraine.
Hamas assassination makes Russia wary of greater involvement
The July assassination of Hamas’s political leader, Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran has however left Iran in a precarious position regionally. On the one hand, it needs to respond to maintain its credibility both at home and among its regional allies. On the other, any significant retaliation risks escalating into a war with Israel. As after Israel’s relations with Russia became even more strained. Because of this, Russians now have smaller-scale diplomatic goals, for example, engaging with Hamas to get Russian hostages out from their territory.
In August, following the assassination, Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu visited Iran and the US increased its military presence there. Shoigu's trip aimed to strengthen interactions and examine regional and international issues and bilateral political security relations. Despite Russia’s broad military cooperation with Iran, it will still likely not fuel the flames of conflict in the Middle East, but instead still aims to deter escalation and prevent damage. Neither Washington nor Moscow wants an escalation in the Middle East, as they have priorities on the Ukraine crisis in Europe with little resources to spare.
To conclude
Russia’s engagement in the current conflict is about more than just Gaza. It is about really cementing themselves within the Arab world. More broadly, a distracted and destabilized Middle East serves Russia’s broader geopolitical goals by diverting Western attention and resources away from Eastern Europe where Russia is more directly engaged. Moscow has shown little interest in Western diplomacy to achieve calm and stability, but it also does not want a regional conflagration in the Middle East which could further complicate its relations.
Jennifer Teale is a researcher at the Israel Defense and Security Forum.
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