Overview
Iran’s Supreme Leader publicly vowed revenge over Hamas senior leader Haniyeh’s assassination in the heart of Tehran, for which he accused Israel, and Hezbollah military chief Shukur’s targeted killing in Lebanon, to which Israel took credit. Iran’s ambassador to the UN also made public statements on his country’s intention to carry out an attack against Israel, even threatening with an “annihilation war” against it.
It was published that Haniyeh’s assassination was not carried out by a missile or an explosive device planted in his room.
Following the assassination of Haniyeh, Hamas announced that it is indefinitely suspending negotiations for a hostage deal. This freeze could last for several weeks, possibly until the Jewish holidays.
Due to Biden’s pressure, an Israeli delegation agreed to leave for Cairo to renew talks on a hostage deal and a ceasefire
Hezbollah continues to fire at an increased rate at northern Israel, in preparation for its response to the assassination of Haniyeh and Fouad Shukur. Hezbollah is moving its headquarters and some of its weapons from Beirut to safer locations in Lebanon.
According to a publication in the British SKY NEWS, Iran and Hezbollah will attack on August 12-13, specifically on Tisha B’Av, due to the symbolic significance of that day. This would be 13 days after Haniyeh’s assassination
Military police arrested 9 reservists (10 are expected to be arrested in total) on charges of abuse and causing bodily harm to a terrorist at the Sde Teiman detention camp
International
Erdogan’s Threat: During an AKP party conference, Erdogan threatened Israel with an invasion (similar to the invasions of Nagorno-Karabakh or Libya) due to the campaign in Gaza. These statements likely reflect more internal political interests in Turkey than a planned policy, but they are a warning that Ankara has ambitions to expand its power in the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East at Israel’s expense and is willing to confront it in the future.
On August 2nd, British Defense Secretary John Healy arrived in Israel as part of a regional tour with British Foreign Secretary David Lammy aimed at preventing escalation in the Middle East and promoting a ceasefire and hostage deal. Both ministers warned that increasing tensions and destabilization would not be in anyone’s interest.
Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong announced that her government conducted an investigation into the deaths of seven workers from “World Central Kitchen” (WCK) from an IDF airstrike in Gaza last April. The investigation found “serious failures” in the conduct of the Israeli military that led to the airstrike on their vehicle. She emphasized that Australia would ensure those responsible are held accountable, including pursuing criminal charges if necessary.
Fears of Regional War and Preparation for the Iranian Axis’ Response
According to a publication in the British SKY NEWS, Iran and Hezbollah will attack on August 12-13, specifically on Tisha B’Av, due to the symbolic significance of that day when both Jewish Temples were destroyed in Jerusalem, approximately 2000 and 2600 years ago. This is 13 days after Haniyeh’s assassination, similar to the attack on April 13, 12 days after the assassination of Zahadi. However, this is just speculation. Moreover, senior officials in Iran and the IRGC called for the assassination of Israeli politicians and military personnel.
Iran has learned lessons from the attack on April. It is possible that instead of attacking in one massive wave on one night, mainly from its territory, it will choose to attack from Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq, at different levels and directions at different times until it breaks through the air defense system and causes damage to the Israeli home front and infrastructure. Like Hamas, Iran cannot overlook Haniyeh’s assassination, just as Hezbollah cannot overlook Shuker’s assassination in Beirut.
Representatives of the proxies from Iraq, Syria, and Yemen met in Tehran to discuss the retaliatory strike for the two assassinations (some had already been in Tehran earlier for the inauguration ceremony of Ebrahim Raisi). Iranian media claim that the retaliatory strike will be larger than the attack that took place on April 13th.
Preparation for a regional campaign with a combined attack by Iran and its proxies: The Syrian opposition newspaper “Ayn al-Furat” reports that three Shia militias are transferring militants and weapons from western Iraq to eastern Syria, to the Tadmor area, and even to the Homs area (including rocket launchers, UAVs, and other weapons). This is in preparation for precise attacks against American bases in the country. Such an attack could be a distraction for the American air defense array and the American Air Force. In other words, launches towards its bases in Syria and Iraq from multiple directions so that the air defense array and the American Central Command’s Air Force would be busy defending its own assets, instead of intercepting the launches from Iran targeting Israel.
Fouad Shukur Assassination
On Tuesday at 18:30, an Israeli Air Force stealth fighter jet dropped several bombs on the Dahiya district (Hezbollah’s stronghold in Beirut), killing Nasrallah’s close advisor, the head of the strategic array, and the highest-ranking commander in the Shiite terrorist organization (equivalent to a Chief of Staff).
In a speech, Nasrallah threatened Israel and condemned it for the assassination of his highest-ranking military commander. He promised to respond to this assassination (alongside Fouad Shuker, his significant other, and an IRGC officer who was present at the location were also killed in the attack).
Gaza Strip
Haniyeh Assassination
It was published that Haniyeh’s assassination was not carried out by a missile or an explosive device planted in his room; the room was in a compound belonging to the IRGC. Such an assassination is more severe than one carried out by a missile because it exposes the ability of Israeli intelligence to penetrate the most sensitive locations in Iran and plant explosives there, endangering the highest ranks of the Islamic Republic.
Currently, extensive arrests are being made in Iran of senior intelligence and security officials suspected of cooperating with the Israeli Mossad in Haniyeh’s assassination. Iran believes that the assassins may still be on Iranian soil.
Israel has assassinated two “number 2” operatives in terror organizations in less than 24 hours in two different capitals (without taking credit publicly for the Haniyeh assassination). This happens as the IDF officially confirms the death of Mohammad Deif, Hamas’ number 2 in the Gaza strip and Hamas’s military leader. Israel sends a strong message with these undertakings and shows that it will not avoid increasing the pressure against its adversaries despite American opposition.
Reactions to the Assassination
Following Haniyeh’s assassination, Turkey, Qatar, China, and other countries condemned it. This was a blow to China’s efforts to influence the region, this was a blow as Haniyeh was one of the leaders of the “Beijing Declaration” initiative that was attempting to form a unity government between Fatah and Hamas.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said, “With this action, the criminal and terrorist Zionist regime prepared the ground for harsh punishment for itself, and we consider it our duty to seek revenge for his blood as he was martyred in the territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” in a statement carried by official news agency IRNA.
The leader of Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels vows a “military response” to the killing of Hamas leader Ismail.
Following the assassination of Haniyeh, Hamas announced that it is indefinitely suspending negotiations for a hostage deal. This freeze could last for several weeks, possibly until the Jewish holidays in October.
The Biden administration is concerned that it will be unable to renew the talks and achieve a ceasefire, and is making efforts to resume them. Representatives of Hamas and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine met to discuss Palestinian internal unity in light of Haniyeh’s assassination. They called on the Arabs of the Judea and Samaria and Jerusalem to go out for a “Day of Rage” on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday where they would hold demonstrations of solidarity with the cause worldwide, in accordance with Haniyeh’s will.
Hamas appears resistant to renew negotiations in the near future following the assassination of its senior leader, as it would be seen as a humiliation and a sign of surrender to Israeli pressure, assassinations, and threats. This would project weakness. The only cease-fire/hostage deal was consummated when Israel was putting a lot pressure on Hamas, which in turn, felt vulnerable and needed the break. With the loss of one of Hamas’s leaders and as Israel expands its attack southward towards the central camps, with the coveted target being Deir al-Balah, the pressure on Hamas is expected to build where they will once again desire a temporary cease-fire.
Haniyeh’s funeral took place on Thursday in Tehran, and his body will be buried in Doha, Qatar. The funeral was attended by the Secretary-General of Islamic Jihad, Ziyad al-Nakhalah, Haniyeh’s former deputy Khalil al-Hayya, and, of course, Ayatollah Khamenei.
Turkey Declares Day of Mourning: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced a day of mourning in Turkey following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. On August 1st, the Turkish Ministry of Communications blocked the Instagram app after it removed posts in which users mourned Ismail Haniyeh’s death. Similarly, Meta (Facebook) removed posts made by the Prime Minister of Malaysia about Haniyeh’s death. The Turkish embassy in Tel Aviv went as far as flying the Turkish flag at half-mast.
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas announced a National Day of Mourning over the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, as he condemned the killing as a “cowardly act and dangerous development.” Condolences poured in from all sides of the Palestinian political spectrum, from the Islamist bloc, represented by Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, to its historic secularist rival Fatah and the communist Popular Front and Democratic Front. All hailed Haniyeh as a national leader who had devoted and sacrificed his life for the Palestinian cause.
PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas, considered to be moderate, not only declared a day of national mourning but called Hamas senior official Khaled Mashal and expressed his condolences over Haniyeh’s killing.
Khaled Mashal, likely to Be Announced as Ismail Haniyeh’s Successor:
Sources in Hamas indicated that Khaled Mashal, who currently serves as the head of Hamas’s “external” leadership, is expected to succeed Ismail Haniyeh. Mashal served as the head of Hamas’s political bureau from 1996 to 2017. Another prominent candidate is Khalil al-Hayya, who is favored by Iran and other members of the “Axis of Resistance.”
Mashal already appears to be stepping into Haniyeh’s role, as he met today in Doha, Qatar, with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan.
Haniyeh supported ties with Shiite Iran, in contrast to Khaled Mashal, who advocates for strengthening relations with the Sunni axis of the “Muslim Brotherhood” led by Qatar, Turkey, and Pakistan. The fact that Mashal’s first meeting in his new (yet familiar) role was with the Turkish Foreign Minister might be a signal of the direction Hamas’s political bureau is heading—perhaps it will also expedite the relocation of Hamas’s political bureau to Turkey, as has been suggested recently.
Iran opposes the selection of Khaled Mashal due to a conflict and his statements regarding Syria and his proximity to the Sunni axis, which includes Qatar, Turkey, and Pakistan. Therefore, the assassination of Haniyeh and the reappointment of Mashal could even worsen relations between Iran and Hamas, potentially leading to a break in ties and causing Iran to lose a significant proxy.
Cutting off Hamas from Iran would mean that one of Iran’s key proxies would no longer be connected to its extensive network. This would weaken Hamas, as funding, military knowledge, and weaponry would be halted at least in terms of support from Iran.
Hostage Deal
Unnamed sources who participated in the talks in Rome (which lasted only two hours) told AXIOS that they do not believe these talks will lead to a ceasefire and a hostage deal because Hamas refuses to accept Israel’s demands for basic security measures such as checkpoints and security inspections of everyone moving north to prevent reinforcement of terrorists, and non-withdrawal from the Nezarim and Philadelphi Corridors. These reports, provided they are accurate, are also meant to publicly pressure Prime Minister Netanyahu and his government to agree to a ceasefire deal that is rife with enormous concessions harming Israel’s security.
Israel, of course, cannot give up control of these corridors under any circumstances; there are still thousands of terrorists in northern Gaza who would rearm and move to the south. The Prime Minister’s office tweeted a statement that Israel will not give up on preventing terrorists from moving north, the Philadelphi Corridor, and maximizing the number of living hostages released in the first round of the ceasefire. Hamas announced that it vehemently refuses to agree to an Israeli presence on the two corridors and the Rafah crossing and condemns the unwillingness to release the security prisoners it demands and the intention to deport some of them to the Gaza Strip or outside of Israel, and not to Judea and Samaria.
Due to Biden’s pressure, an Israeli delegation agreed to travel to Cairo to renew talks on a hostage deal and ceasefire. Biden spoke with Netanyahu on Saturday in what was described by the media and sources as a very tense conversation, where Biden expressed anger at Netanyahu for making the hostage deal difficult and told him not to take the U.S. President for granted.
American Efforts to “Deescalate”
Attempts by Washington to de-escalate and pressure Israel to avoid regional escalation:S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke with Defense Minister Gallant, after which the Pentagon approved bolstering American forces in the Middle East by deploying additional troops, fighter jets, and naval vessels such as destroyers to intercept ballistic missiles and other launches. Gallant met with the British Defense Secretary, who visited the country and declared the strengthening of the security partnership between the countries and the creation of a regional coalition against Iran. The British Chief of Staff also visited the country and met with Chief of Staff Halevy to discuss the strategic partnership. The U.S. and the U.K. are significant parts of the defense of Israel’s skies and the fight against the Iranian resistance axis (with an emphasis on the Houthis). All sides are waiting for Iran and the resistance axis’ counter-response, which will test Israel and the American Central Command, potentially forming an “Abrahamic Alliance” and repeating the joint effort from April that repelled the Iranian attack of Israel, in the largest missile attack in history.
An American delegation led by Brett McGurk arrived in Saudi Arabia to mediate de-escalation talks between the Houthis and Saudis, as tensions could rise due to the Israeli strike in Al-Hudaydah. McGurk is also expected to visit Cairo in an effort to renew negotiations for a hostage deal. Secretary of State Antony Blinken conveyed a message of de-escalation to Iran and Hezbollah through the Qatari Prime Minister (who himself declared his commitment to the hostage deal), indicating the U.S. interest in resuming talks.
Operational
Sde Teiman Incident
Israeli Military police arrested 9 reservists (10 are expected to be arrested in total) on charges of abuse and causing bodily harm to a terrorist at the Sde Teiman detention camp (where prisoners of war and Nukhba terrorists are held). Following their arrests and preparation for their trial, two civilian protests took place, one at the Teiman camp and the other at Beit Lid. Members of Knesset from Likud and Otzma Yehudit participated in the protests. Citizens broke in to the military base as a protest against the reservists’ arrests. The Chief of Staff and Defense Minister Gallant condemned the incident, but no statement was issued by the Prime Minister’s office until many hours later deploring the outbreak of chaos.
The 98th Division reported the destruction of 100 kilometers of tunnels since the start of the ground operations at the end of October. The division prevented Hamas from re-establishing its presence in eastern Khan Yunis and destroyed at least two tunnels using new intelligence obtained from prisoner interrogations and completed searches for the bodies of hostages. It is now being redirected to its next mission.
According to a pro-Saudi newspaper, an airstrike by the Israeli Air Force last week destroyed a tunnel in an industrial area southwest of Gaza City, killing five Hamas members, two of whom were members of the political bureau. One was responsible for intelligence in the Gaza City Brigade, another was a commander in the rocket unit, and the last was a commander in the security apparatus. No official statement has been released by the IDF, but if true, this would be a significant organizational blow to Hamas.
In the Rafah area, the 401st Armored Brigade left the area for replenishment after almost three months of fighting. Only two out of the original six brigades remain. The defeat of the Rafah Brigade of Hamas is delayed due to the reinforcement of militants from the north and the need to continuously redirect forces and resources to locate and destroy tunnels in the extensive underground network. On Friday, there were several launches from the Gaza Strip. These were launched from the area between Rafah and Khan Yunis, likely to “empty” rocket stockpiles as the forces approached the area. Towards the evening, a launch from the northern strip towards Nachal Oz (which was intercepted) occurred. It is possible that terror factions are trying to avenge the killing of Haniyeh; if so, this attempt at revenge proves the factions’ weakness and inability to threaten Israel after the assassination of their top political leader
An airstrike, guided by intelligence from the Shin Bet and the IDF Military Intelligence Directorate, targeted a school in the Shuja’iyya neighborhood, where Hamas and other terrorist organizations were active.
Lebanon
Operational
In preparation for its response to the assassination of Haniyeh and Fouad Shukur, Hezbollah continues to fire at an increased rate at the north, while the Air Force responded by attacking terrorist infrastructure and additional terrorist cells. One Israeli civilian aged 28 died as a result of a rocket explosion. On Saturday afternoon, a central terrorist in Hezbollah’s southern front, responsible for planning and executing a series of terror attacks, was killed by an airstrike.
It was reported that Hezbollah is moving its headquarters and some of its weapons from Beirut to safer locations in Lebanon, while the Northern Command completed a series of exercises in preparation for a ground maneuver.
The Israeli Navy’s, INS Independence, a Sa’ar 6-class corvette (operational during the war), successfully conducted an exercise with the “Barak Magen” system and the new LRAD interceptor, capable of intercepting all types of threats in the maritime arena, from UAVs to shore-to-sea missiles.
Judea and Samaria
In the past week, 40 wanted individuals were arrested in Judea and Samaria, and numerous weapons and a lathe for manufacturing weapons were confiscated.
The Mufti of the Al-Aqsa Mosque blasted a eulogy for Haniyeh utilizing the loudspeaker on the holy site of the Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif. Known for his anti-Israel views and support for terrorists over the years, the police arrested him for incitement but later released him. He is a resident of the Palestinian Authority, and the Interior Minister threatened to revoke his permanent residency.
Iraq and Syria
Shiite Militias in Iraq: A senior official in one of the Shiite militias in Iraq told a BBC journalist that they had received “Iran’s full blessing” to resume attacks against American bases in Syria and Iraq. Leaders of the militias Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba declared that the unofficial ceasefire had ended and they were ready to resume attacks to expel the American forces from the country. They also warned that any attack on Lebanon (following the massacre in Majdal Shams) would trigger their response.
Iran
The Institute for the Study of War claims that Iran has reached a state of nuclear deterrence and will try to launch missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads (though without such warheads) to prove its capability to Israel and deter it in the future.
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