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Myth:

As long as Israel does not accept Palestinians' Right to Self Determination, the wars in the Middle East will continue.

Fact:

The narrative that the root cause of the Middle East's wars is Israel's lack of acceptance of Palestinian freedom is a misconception. While the Israeli-Palestinian conflict garners significant attention, an objective analysis of the region's history over the past century reveals that most wars in the Middle East are unrelated to the Palestinian issue. The data unequivocally shows that over 98% of war-related deaths in the region stem from conflicts that have nothing to do with neither Israel or the Palestinians.



Over the last 100 years, the Middle East has been plagued by numerous conflicts, yet only 5 of the 20 most significant wars in the region had any direct connection to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. These five wars, which include the Arab-Israeli wars and the Intifadas, resulted in approximately 156,000 deaths—a tragic number, but a small fraction compared to the approximately 5.7 million deaths from wars in the region overall.

The remaining conflicts, such as the Iran-Iraq War, the Syrian Civil War, and the Yemen Civil War, were driven by power struggles, sectarian divisions, and geopolitical rivalries, not the Palestinian cause. For example:

  • Iran-Iraq War (1980–1988): This devastating war resulted in up to 1,000,000 deaths and was rooted in territorial disputes and ideological differences between Saddam Hussein's regime and the Iranian government.

  • Syrian Civil War (2011–present): With an estimated death toll of 500,000, this ongoing conflict involves a complex web of factions, including ISIS, Kurdish forces, and international powers like Russia and the U.S.

  • Yemen Civil War (2015–present): Over 377,000 deaths have been attributed to this proxy war between Iran-backed Houthi rebels and a Saudi-led coalition.

These conflicts, among others, highlight the multifaceted nature of Middle Eastern wars, which are often fueled by internal divisions, external interventions, and competing ideologies rather than the Palestinian question.

Even within the Israeli-Palestinian conflicts, the death tolls are overshadowed by the scale of other wars in the region.

A Fixation on the Palestinian Cause

Despite its relatively small human cost in the context of the region, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict receives disproportionate attention. This focus stems from several factors:

  1. Media Coverage: The conflict often involves Western powers, which amplifies its visibility in global media disproportionately to the ears actual size and importance.

  2. Geopolitical Interests: The involvement of influential countries like the U.S. and EU creates a narrative of global importance.

  3. Symbolism: For many in the Arab and Muslim worlds, the Palestinian cause symbolizes resistance to Western influence, even as internal divisions persist. For them, Israel remains a foreign bastion representing Western interests over a once-Muslim occupied land, rather than the homeland of the Jewish people. Therefore fixation on the Palestinians issue draws attention away from crimes that are committed inside the Arab world and unites Muslim populations around their authoritarian leader. The Palestinian narrative has therefore become a cudgle to use against Israel rather than a real pressing issue.

Would a Palestinian State End Middle Eastern Wars?

The evidence suggests otherwise. Even if a new Palestinian state were established, the underlying causes of regional conflicts—such as sectarian divides, power struggles, and external meddling—would remain. The wars in Syria, Yemen, Iraq, and beyond would likely continue unabated, as they are rooted in issues far removed from the Palestinian question.

The myth that Israel's actions regarding Palestinian freedom are the linchpin for peace in the Middle East ignores the facts. While the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is impactful in geopolitical terms, it is neither the sole nor the primary driver of Middle Eastern instability, death, poverty and destruction. The broader challenges of governance, sectarianism, authoritarianism, radical Islamist ideologies and external interference are the main reasons that there is no “peace” in the Middle East.


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Full Data

Syrian Civil War (2011–present)

  • Estimated Deaths: Approximately 400,000 to 500,000

  • Sides: Syrian government (Assad regime) vs. Free Syrian Army and other rebel groups, with involvement from ISIS, Kurdish forces, and foreign powers like Russia and the U.S

  • Data: SOHR, UN Human Rights Office.

Iran-Iraq War (1980–1988)

  • Estimated Deaths: Approximately 500,000 to 1,000,000

  • Sides: Iran vs. Iraq

  • Data: The Iran-Iraq War: Impact and Implications" by Efraim Karsh, Britannica

Yemen Civil War (2015–present)

Iraq War (2003–2011)

  • Estimated Deaths: Approximately 151,000 to 600,000

  • Sides: United States-led coalition vs. Iraq (Saddam Hussein’s regime)

Lebanese Civil War (1975–1990)

  • Estimated Deaths: Approximately 120,000

  • Sides: Various factions, including Christian militias, Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO), and Muslim militias, with involvement from Syria and Israel

  • Data: NY Times Report, AGBU Magazine

Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (1948–present)

Algerian War of Independence (1954–1962)

  • Estimated Deaths: Approximately 300,000 to 1,500,000

  • Sides: France vs. Algerian National Liberation Front (FLN)

  • Data: Britannica

First Sudanese Civil War (1955–1972)

  • Estimated Deaths: Approximately 500,000

  • Sides: Sudanese government vs. Anyanya (Southern Sudanese rebels)

  • Data: USHMM

Second Sudanese Civil War (1983–2005)

  • Estimated Deaths: Approximately 2,000,000

  • Sides: Sudanese government vs. Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA)

  • Data: PBS

Libyan Civil War (2011)

  • Estimated Deaths: Approximately 30,000

  • Sides: Muammar Gaddafi’s regime vs. rebel groups, with NATO involvement

  • Data: SMH

Six-Day War (1967)

  • Estimated Deaths: Approximately 20,000 (11,500 Egyptians, 6,094 Jordanians, 1,000 Syrians, 776 Israelis, 2,000 Iraq)

  • Sides: Israel vs. Egypt, Jordan, and Syria

  • Data: Britannica, Jewish National Library

Yom Kippur War (1973)

  • Estimated Deaths: Approximately 19,000 (2500 Israelis, 15,000 Egyptians, 3,500 Syrians)

  • Sides: Israel vs. Egypt and Syria

  • Data: Jewish National Library

Suez Crisis (1956)

  • Estimated Deaths: Approximately 3,000

  • Sides: Egypt vs. Israel, United Kingdom, and France

  • Data: Jewish National Library

First Intifada (1987–1993)

Second Intifada (2000–2005)

  • Estimated Deaths: Approximately 3,200 (2,000 Palestinians, over 1,000 Israelis)

  • Sides: Palestinian militants vs. Israel

  • Data: Israeli Government

2006 Lebanon War

  • Estimated Deaths: Approximately 1,300

  • Sides: Israel vs. Hezbollah (Lebanese militia)

  • Data: HRW

Gulf War (1990–1991)

  • Estimated Deaths: Approximately 20,000 to 35,000

  • Sides: Iraq vs. Coalition forces (United States, Saudi Arabia, and others)

  • Data: US Navy

Sinai Insurgency (2011–present)

  • Estimated Deaths: Approximately 1,000 to 2,000

  • Sides: Egypt vs. ISIS-affiliated groups

Iraq Insurgency and ISIS War (2014–2017)

  • Estimated Deaths: Approximately 67,000

  • Sides: ISIS vs. Iraqi government, Kurdish Peshmerga, and U.S.-led coalition

October War (2023)

  • Estimated Deaths: An estimated 43,000 (23,500 terrorist, 17,000 others) Palestinians and 1840 Israeli’s (IDF and others)

  • Sides: Israel vs. Hamas and allied Palestinian factions in Gaza

  • Data: Warinisrael.org, IDF, OCHA . OCHA claims that over 51,700 Palestinians were killed. The Gaza Health Ministry identified 40,717 of those deaths. The IDF claims that 23,500 Terrorists were killed. The number of Palestinian deaths is anywhere between 23,500-50,000.

Source:

Yishai Gelb

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